NRL Round 5
My Game Handicaps | Market (handicap and total points are market)
-13.5
-10.5 Dolphins v Eagles | 50.5
-2.5
-1.5 Rabbits v Bulldogs | 46.5
-9.5
-8.5 Panthers v Storm | 43.5
+1.5
+4.5 Knights v Raiders | 47.5
+1.0
+2.5 Dragons v Cowboys | 49.5
-6.5
-4.5 Sharks v Warriors | 47.5
+13.5
+12.5 Titans v Broncos | 51.5
+1.5
-2.5 Eels v Tigers | 49.5
My Bets
3u Dolphins -10.5 $1.90
3.5u Rabbits H2H $1.90
2u Knights +4.5 $1.90
3u Knights-Raiders tribet 10.5 (either win by 10 or less) $1.90
3.5u Sharks -4.5 $1.90
4.5u Tigers +2.5 $1.90 BB
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Notes
3u Dolphins -10.5 $1.90
Dolphins off strong form reference game last week (Broncos) plus key ins, cover at home at this ground at 55%; key ins, what looks big forward and yardage advantage. Eagles new coach but same issues, leaking 30 a week and conceding the middle way too softly
3.5u Rabbits H2H $1.90
Rabbits off bye and will bring some attack strike, positive attack is hurting the Bulldogs who are very clunky and to date not improving, likely tight, but want to be with the strike
2u Knights +4.5 $1.90
Knights have been positive and plucky, like their set up here. The H2H record is 7-5 to Knights since 2020, the underdog at the line record when these two match up is the dog covering at 83%, plus we have the dog as a home dog of more than a try.
3u Knights-Raiders tribet 10.5 (either win by 10 or less) $1.90
These teams consistently produce tight games, 66.7% of H2H meetings decided within 10 points, happy to play this angle here
3.5u Sharks -4.5 $1.90
Sharks' home ATS record of 61.0% (77 games); ATS 63.4% over the last 41 games; Warriors line record away at this number some risk against a higher table opponent
4.5u Tigers +2.5 $1.90 BB
Tigers have been positive on both sides on the ball, showing some resolve in each game, have attack strike. How are the Eels priced as favs.. have 5 outs and are leaking 30 a week
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
Dolphins minus
Rabbits minus
Panthers minus
Cowboys minus
Broncos minus
Sharks minus
Knights plus
Tigers plus
Game Tips
Dolphins by 16
Rabbits by 6
Panthers by 12
Cowboys by 6
Broncos by 16
Sharks by 8
Knights by 4
Tigers by 10
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
-13.5
-10.5 Dolphins v Eagles | 50.5
The Dolphins host a Sea Eagles side in freefall and have now sacked the coach, having dropped three straight while conceding an average of 32 points per game. The Dolphins size and yardage through the middle should dominate both sides of the ball, creating the platform for their strike weapons to finish off a Sea Eagles defence that has offered little resistance this season. The Dolphins' recent home form tells the story — covering the spread in six of their last eight at Kayo — while Manly's 43.2% away ATS (42.1% recent) is one of the worst marks in the competition. Despite a six-day turnaround, the Dolphins look well-placed to control this game and win by 12 or more.
-2.5
-1.5 Rabbits v Bulldogs | 46.5
The Rabbitohs arrive on Good Friday fresh off an extended turnaround, and history is firmly on their side — six wins from their last seven Good Friday clashes, with this event seemingly bringing the best out of them. The return of Campbell Graham adds another weapon to an already dangerous backline, and with Walker, Mitchell, Wighton, Fifita and Gray providing a lot of strike in attack. This looks an advantage over a Bulldogs side that has looked clunky and disconnected season to date, having failed to crack 16 points and last week's loss to an up-tempo Knights outfit exposed just how far their attack has to go. I like the Rabbitohs to play to this strike advantage and win.
-9.5
-8.5 Panthers v Storm | 43.5
The Panthers arrive to this in ominous form — four from four, averaging 35 points in attack and conceding very little, and even without Kenny they carry the depth to absorb the loss without missing a beat. What stands out most is their composure; this is a side that can manage game flow, control tempo, and then shift through the gears and strike when the moment presents itself. The Storm, by contrast, are carrying a mounting injury toll plus several who are named here also in serious doubt, and their last two defeats have exposed a recurring problem — second half fade-outs and far too many holes down each edge being exploited for points. While this fixture historically produces tight games, the current gap in player list strength and defensive integrity looks real, and the Panthers appear well-equipped to press that advantage and win by double figures.
+1.0
+2.5 Dragons v Cowboys | 49.5
The Dragons return to Kogarah winless through four rounds, carrying a crisis of confidence and an attack that is struggling badly — poor yardage out of their own end, too many errors, and a form line that offers little encouragement heading into this. A home game here may provide some comfort, but it's hard to see where the points come from against a Cowboys side that showed real grit and resolve in the second half last week — a performance that could well prove the turning point in their season. North Queensland bring genuine attack strike, Cliford was excellent last week as was their back five, and with six straight head to head wins over the Dragons they should carry some psychological edge. Key is for them to be winning in Sydeny where they strike at only 39%. Expect a low-scoring affair by recent H2H standards, but want to be with the Cowboys to have enough about them to get the job done.
+13.5
+12.5 Titans v Broncos | 51.5
The Titans broke through for their first win of 2026 last week but it came against a Dragons side near the bottom of the table — a result that does little to close the apparent quality gap between these two sides right now. The Broncos arrive in strong form, back-to-back wins over the Dolphins and Storm with a defensive effort that conceded just 12 and 14 points respectively, and six wins from their last seven on the road underlines just how dangerous they are away from home. Yet for all the Broncos' class and strike, the line history here is hard to ignore — the Titans have covered the +12.5 spread in eight of their last ten meetings, while Brisbane have failed to cover that same line in nine of their last ten away games. The Titans with back to back home games and their H2H history could well keep this within striking distance. Broncos to win by two tries.
-6.5
-4.5 Sharks v Warriors | 47.5
The Sharks responded strongly to back-to-back defeats with a strong away win over the Raiders last week, and they return home as one of the competition's most reliable home track teams — a 62% line cover rate long-term and 64% across the last 45 games is as good as it gets in the NRL. The Warriors showed glimpses of their early-season form before capitulating badly once they hit the front last week, conceding 32 unanswered points in a 32-14 home loss, and the further loss of Barnett to injury only adds to their challenges heading into this road trip. This shapes as a top-six quality clash on paper, but the market looks short given the Sharks' dominant home record and the Warriors' current defensive vulnerability — particularly when things don't go their way. I’m with the Sharks to put two wins together and be winning by six or more.
+1.5
+4.5 Knights v Raiders | 47.5
The Knights have been one of the positive if not under the radar stories of the opening month — three wins from four including some genuine surprise results — and last week's up-tempo, ball-shifting performance showed a side growing in confidence and willing to take the game on, making them for me a curious 4.5-point underdog at home with Trey Mooney back. The Raiders, by contrast, are 1-4 and their own worst enemy — chronic infringements and handling errors week after week are costing them dearly, and after blowing strong positions against both the Bulldogs and Sharks in recent weeks, they are genuinely hard to trust regardless of their talent. The long-term H2H record between these two tells a consistent story — the underdog cover at an extraordinary high rate (82%) and short margins are the norm, with 66% of meetings decided within 10 points. The handicap looks too wide for this matchup, and with the Knights at home and off building confidence, the underdog line and the Tribet 10 both look well positioned plays.
+1.5
-2.5 Eels v Tigers | 49.5
The market has the Eels as 2.5-point favourites but the case for that pricing looks very questionable for me — two wins from four including a fortunate late result, five players out through injury with two or three of those genuinely influential, and a defence that has been conceding 38 points a week and offering opponents way too much opportunity. The Tigers, by contrast, have shown some real character and resolve in their last two outings, and last week's second-half charge was the kind of performance that signals this improvement — their attack looks sharper and more purposeful, with better ball shift and real strike out wide that will test this Eels defensive line severely. Importantly, the Tigers have also tightened defensively compared to recent seasons, and if they bring that same composure and structure here they look well placed to control large parts of this contest, and their attack to benefit. I am keen on the Tigers set up here.
Odds Comparison
Aus Sports Betting Odds Comparison
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
Longer Term | Futures Plays
3u Titans most losses $4.00 (12th March)
4u Storm to miss Top 8 $3.70 (pre-season)
3u Titans Most Losses (Spoon) $5.00 (pre-season)
6.5u Titans Bottom 4 $1.91 (pre-season)
3u Titans winless after 6 rounds $6.50 (pre-season)
4.5u Roosters Top 4 $2.30 (pre-season)
4.5u Warriors Top 8 $2.30 (pre-season)
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